Ensemble-based ozone forecasts: Skill and economic value
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts
Papers published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions are under open-access review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures ◭ ◮ ◭ ◮ Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion EGU Abstract A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of pr...
متن کاملSkill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions
A hydrological ensemble prediction system, integrating a water balance model with ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), is evaluated for two Belgian catchments using verification methods borrowed from meteorology. The skill of the probability forecast that the streamflow exceeds a given level is mea...
متن کاملSkill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble
Ensemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected forecast skill. Several quantities derived from the local ensemble distribution are investigated for a two year data set of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) temperature and wind...
متن کاملEnsemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone
This paper investigates the potential of ensemble techniques to improve ozone forecasts. Ensembles with up to 48 members (models) are generated using the modeling system Polyphemus. Members differ in their physical parameterizations, their numerical approximations and their input data. Each model is evaluated during four months (summer 2001) over Europe with hundreds of stations from three ozon...
متن کاملDo Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Yield Added Value?
The THORPEX goal of improving weather forecasts from one day to two weeks suggests the combination of multi-model and multi-initial-condition ensembles of simulations into a probabilistic forecast of some kind. This contribution presents a simple methodology for combining forecasts (be they high resolution or ensemble forecasts) into a predictive distribution function of a chosen target variabl...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
سال: 2006
ISSN: 0148-0227
DOI: 10.1029/2006jd007124